In a region marked by historical tensions and occasional flare-ups, the question of whether India and Pakistan could engage in a large-scale war remains a topic of serious concern for many. As someone observing the complex dynamics between these neighboring nuclear powers, I believe there are compelling reasons why such a catastrophic scenario is unlikely to materialize. This analysis explores the economic entanglements and international stakeholder interests that serve as powerful deterrents against full-scale conflict.

Foreign Investments: The Economic Shield

One of the most significant factors preventing large-scale warfare between India and Pakistan is the substantial foreign investment in Pakistan's economy, particularly from wealthy Gulf states and Western companies. These investments create a web of economic interests that would be severely damaged by any major military conflict.

Saudi Arabia's Agricultural Investments

Saudi Arabia has made significant investments in Pakistani agriculture, leasing vast tracts of farmland to ensure its own food security. In 2009, Saudi Arabia was in talks with Pakistan to lease approximately 500,000 acres (202,400 hectares) of farmland—an area nearly twice the size of Hong Kong—primarily to grow wheat and other essential crops that would be exported to Saudi Arabia. This arrangement helps Saudi Arabia address its domestic food security challenges while providing Pakistan with foreign investment.

The agricultural relationship continues today, with Saudi entities investing in Pakistani farming operations specifically designed to produce crops for export back to the Kingdom. These investments represent a crucial economic link that neither country would want disrupted by regional conflict.

UAE's Telecommunications Stake

The United Arab Emirates, through its telecommunications giant Etisalat, has made substantial investments in Pakistan's telecommunications infrastructure. In 2005, Etisalat acquired a significant stake in Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL), as part of a major privatization initiative. This investment gave Etisalat management control and established it as a major player in Pakistan's telecommunications sector.

Etisalat signed a $2.6 billion deal in June 2005 to acquire 26 percent shares in PTCL with management control, though a portion of the payment has been held back due to property-transfer disputes. Despite these disputes, the UAE company maintains a significant stake in Pakistan's digital infrastructure and continues to explore further investment opportunities in the country's telecom and IT sectors.

British Mining Operations in Balochistan

Another crucial foreign investment is the Reko Diq mining project in Balochistan, which represents one of the world's largest undeveloped copper and gold deposits. Reko Diq is currently 50% owned by Barrick Gold, 25% by three federal state-owned enterprises, and 25% by the Government of Balochistan.

The Reko Diq copper and gold project is expected to generate approximately $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, based on consensus long-term prices. Production is scheduled to begin by 2028, with the mine producing substantial amounts of copper and gold. This represents a major long-term economic asset for Pakistan that would be jeopardized by any major conflict.

The Deterrent Effect of Foreign Interests

These substantial foreign investments create a powerful incentive for international stakeholders to prevent any escalation toward war between India and Pakistan. As I noted in my original thoughts, "a bomb does not know which country the wheat belongs to. Fire destroys everything."

For countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and international mining companies with billions invested in Pakistan, war represents an existential threat to their assets and financial interests. These stakeholders therefore have strong motivations to act as mediators and apply diplomatic pressure to ensure that tensions never escalate to full-scale conflict.

The Mediating Role of International Stakeholders

The countries with significant investments in Pakistan can and do play important roles in mediating tensions between India and Pakistan. Their economic leverage gives them influence with both nations, and they can use diplomatic channels to encourage dialogue and de-escalation during periods of heightened tension.

This mediating role has been evident during past crises, when countries with economic stakes in the region have worked behind the scenes to bring both parties to the negotiating table. The complex network of economic relationships creates a web of interdependence that makes war increasingly costly and therefore less likely.

Internal Challenges Requiring Attention

Both India and Pakistan face significant domestic challenges that demand resources and attention that would be diverted by conflict. For Pakistan, economic development, infrastructure improvement, and political stability remain pressing concerns. For India, addressing corruption in institutions and ensuring that systems work efficiently is crucial for preventing security vulnerabilities.

As I noted, both countries need to "eliminate corruption from the institutions" and ensure that "every person should perform their duties honestly." Institutional inefficiencies and corruption not only create internal problems but can also create security vulnerabilities that might be exploited.

The Long Road to Changed Mindsets

One of the most challenging aspects of the India-Pakistan relationship is the mindset that has developed over decades of conflict and tension. As I mentioned, "for the last fifty years, there has been a war-like situation in our region. In the minds of many people, it is a good thing to kill and kill in the name of religion."

Changing these deeply ingrained attitudes will take time—perhaps "another forty, fifty years for people's thinking to change." During this transition period, both countries need to maintain vigilant security measures to prevent terrorist incidents or other provocations that could escalate tensions.

Conclusion: Economic Interdependence as a Path to Peace

The economic relationships and foreign investments described above represent just a small portion of the complex web of international interests that help maintain peace between India and Pakistan. As global economic integration continues to deepen, the cost of conflict rises accordingly, making war an increasingly unattractive option for rational actors.

This doesn't mean that tensions won't flare or that limited conflicts won't occur. However, the economic realities suggest that full-scale war becomes less likely as more international stakeholders develop vested interests in regional stability.

The path forward lies in strengthening these economic ties while simultaneously working to change mindsets through education, cultural exchange, and dialogue. By focusing on shared economic interests rather than historical grievances, both countries can gradually move toward a more stable and prosperous relationship.

Kashif Paul is an independent analyst with an interest in India-Pakistan relations and regional economic development.